Welcome to our first newsletter of 2023.
As every January, we wish those we come into contact with all the very best in the new year. Well-meant and personal resolutions are enumerated, and then we take a collective breath, meditate, pray and get on with it.
This month, I’m pleased to bring you excerpts and wisdom from author Ryan Holiday (“The Obstacle Is the Way” 2014.)
“Nobody knows what the day or the week has in store for us. As much as we take care of ourselves and eat well, so much of our health is outside of our control. But the one way we can make sure that we’re always well, that we’re always getting better (mentally, spiritually, if not physically) is by the things we read, the questions we ask ourselves, and the conversations we have.”
“All the things you’re worried about potentially happening in the future are in fact happening right now somewhere in the world. All the things you’re not sure you could handle…people have been handling since the beginning of time. Nothing new looms, only reruns of what you’ve already experienced or read about in the annals of history.”
”We should think about how we are going to respond in 2023. Because some of the signs and forecasts for the new year are already pretty bleak. A potential global economic recession. Political divides and gridlock among our governments. A culture war that continues to be inflamed. An increasingly uncertain future for the environment. The grinding war in Ukraine and new threats from international actors like North Korea and Iran.”
“These are some dark clouds but we have to focus on exertion, not rumination. Not what caused our troubles. Not who authored them. Not how much blame they deserve. Those questions are irrelevant distractions. The same goes with the issues in our personal lives, in our marriages, in our businesses. Finding fault, nurturing resentments, complaints about how hard things will be. All of that must be put aside.”
“What matters is how we plan to exert ourselves, how we plan to fix our situation, how we plan to respond to whatever life has thrown at us, how we plan to attack 2023. It doesn’t matter what has happened to you, it matters what you do next. Will you ruminate? Or will you exert yourself? By taking nothing personally, focusing only on what you could do about a problem, this is how you could demonstrate greatness and virtue because of the hardship in front of you.”
Till next month, stay safe and healthy, Happy New Year, Happy Lunar New Year of the Rabbit, and GO NINERS!!!
Derek & Natalie, Mo, and Arwin
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by Patrick Carlisle, Market Analyst for Compass Bay Area
In 2022, the market saw a dramatic shift from Q2 (spring), when the market peaked after a dramatic 10-year upcycle supercharged at its end by the pandemic boom, through the 2nd half of the year, when the market cooled significantly. Prompted by a number of economic factors especially inflation and interest rates, and financial markets – this played out in substantial declines in sales volumes, median sales prices, appreciation rates, and virtually all the standard measurements of buyer demand.
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New Listings | Just Sold | Announcement
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Congratulations to my good friends, The Chinns, who closed escrow recently on a single-family home for daughter Lori.
This was our second opportunity to work together, and we prevailed over 12 other offers for 3118 Pacheco Street.
(Pictured: Jeff, Julie, and Lori Chinn. Lori is an artist who has created several of these large hearts you’ll see in both public and private collections.)
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* Finland is supposedly the “happiest country in the world” and here are 3 of their philosophies that may teach us/remind us of some lessons:
1. Focus more on what makes you happy and less on looking successful. The first step to true happiness is to set your own standards, instead of comparing yourself to others.
2. Spending time in nature increases our vitality, and well-being and gives us a sense of personal growth. Find ways to add some greenery to your life, even if it’s just buying a few plants for your home.
3. Building trust. How can you show up for your community? How can you create more trust? How can you support policies that build upon that trust? Small acts like opening doors for strangers or giving up a seat on the train make a difference, too.
*Critics of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive strategy have said the central bank risks overshooting on its interest rate goals by keeping them too high for too long….and the speed of interest rate hikes this year, which has left little time to evaluate the effect of each hike on inflation and the state of the economy. Billionaire Bond Investor Bill Gross warns one of the things the Fed may be missing is the “dangerous” levels of hidden leverage and debt—off-balance and largely unregulated debt (around $65 trillion) — that is circulating in the economy right now.
*The variables in what housing economists think home pricing will do in 2023 are fascinating, varying from a 5% increase all the way to a 22% decrease……barely any of these ‘economists’ mentioned that pricing shifts will be very different in different areas and classifications. The curse of averages and medians continues…..
Mortgage Bankers Association: fall 0.6% in 2023, 1.2% dip in 2024.
Fannie Mae: fall 1.5% in 2023 and another 1.4% dip in 2024.
Amherst: fall by 5% between September 2022 and September 2025.
Capital Economics: fall 8%.
Goldman Sachs: fall 5% -10% from top to bottom—a 7.6% decline
ING: fall between 5% to 10%.
Bill McBride: fall around 10% from the 2022 peak.
Keller Williams Realty: fall 10% from top to bottom.
TD Bank: fall by around 10%….5.7% in 2023 and another 2% drop in 2024.
Morgan Stanley: The Wall Street bank expects home prices to fall by around 10%
between June 2022 and the bottom in 2024.
Moody’s Analytics: the peak-to-trough decline of 10%.
Zelman & Associates fall 12% between the 2022 top and the 2024 bottom.
AEI: fall 15% to 20% from peak to trough.
CoStar: fall by around 20%.
KPMG: fall 20% between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the 4th quarter of 2023.
Yieldstreet: fall 20% below 2022 peak.
Pantheon Macroeconomics: fall by around 20%.
John Burns Real Estate Consulting: fall 20% – 22%. (FORTUNE)
OPINION: So if we were to ‘average’ these opinions, we could deduce a 12% decline in pricing….potentially…..which implies that a $400,000 home that escalated in valueby 25% over the past 3 years, will be worth $440,000 by end 2024. Which is a 2% annual price increase over 5 years. 2% is the inflation rate the Fed is aiming for……
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Supersized Plans for Proposed SoMa Tower Now in Play
As newly envisioned and massed by SCB for the project team, the supersized 46-story tower would now yield 522 rental units, a mix of 131 studios, 181 one-bedrooms, 204 twos, and 6 threes, along with 3,350 square feet of ground floor commercial space, a storage room for 207 bikes and a basement garage for 110 cars, leveraging a State Density Bonus to build 211 feet higher than already up-zoned. We’ll keep you posted and plugged-in
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As one of the seven Painted Ladies perched across from Alamo Square Park, George Horsfall’s 1894 home is voraciously photographed by visitors from the world over. And while many have glimpsed the outside — most famously as the backdrop for the opening credits to the TV show “Full House” — only select people have been inside. But Horsfall is gradually changing that.
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Since Compass launched in 2012, we’ve been simplifying the real estate process one community at a time. Today, we have more than 250+ offices extending from coast to coast.
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© Compass 2023 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYCCompass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions. |
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